Cover image courtesy of Ashlea Brennan
If the industry needed a reminder of the versatility of Not A Single Doubt as a producer of stakes winners, racing on both sides of Australia provided that on Saturday with the Gerald Ryan and Sterling Alexiou-trained 2-year-old Mallory winning the G3 Widden S. at Rosehill and then Samizdat claiming her second stakes success in the Listed Scenic Blast S. at Ascot for Chris and Michael Gangemi.
Those wins helped Not A Single Doubt consolidate his lead on top of the Australian Sires' Table and he currently holds a near $2.2 million advantage over Written Tycoon at the halfway point of the season.
He remains atop of the Sires' table despite a considerable disadvantage numerically compared to many of his rivals. He has had 115 fewer starters than Written Tycoon this season and 99 fewer than third-placed I Am Invincible.
Of course, he owes a substantial debt to his elite sprinting son Classique Legend for that lead, with his win in The Everest contributing more than 50 per cent of the total prizemoney earned by Not A Single Doubt's progeny in 2020/21, but to characterise the stallion as a one-man band does a huge disservice to what he has achieved.
Not A Single Doubt
It was January 21, 2020 when Arrowfield officially announced that after 15 seasons, Not A Single Doubt would be withdrawn from service due to an ongoing pulmonary issue.
In the 376 days since that decision, his progeny have had an extraordinary run of success. He has had three Group 1 winners, G1 Golden Slipper S. winner Farnan, G1 Vinery Stud S. and G1 Empire Rose S. winner, Shout The Bar, and G1 HKJC Champions Mile winner Southern Lad.
He has also had four of his progeny win at Group 2 level, three to Group 3 level and two Listed winners. There are also a further 11 of his horses who have been stakes-placed in that time.
What most stands out about that period is the amount of prizemoney his progeny have won. After Saturday's success, the total exceeds $27 million, or an average of $105,231 per runner. With his progeny having now won a total of $127 million across his career, it means that well over a quarter of that has been won in the time since he was retired.
"After Saturday's success, the total exceeds $27 million, or an average of $105,231 per runner."
As a measure of comparison, the record amount of prizemoney won by the progeny of any stallion in Australia in a single season was Snitzel in 2017/18, at $29,243,613. The 12 month-timeframe of that achievement is comparable to what his former Arrowfield barnmate has achieved since January 21 last year.
Samizdat
Without wanting to diminish or enhance either stallion's achievements, and purely as a means to provide comparison, Snitzel had 328 runners in that season, compared to Not A Single Doubt's 257 runners since retirement. Snitzel had a staggering 26 stakes winners in that campaign as well as The Everest winner, Redzel.
Progeny at a premium
Not A Single Doubt's retirement has had a dual impact on the bloodstock industry in that firstly, it put a premium on his remaining crops through the sales ring, and secondly, it accelerated the desire to find one of his sons to fill the void left by him as a stallion.
Up until his retirement, his yearlings had averaged $155,884 through the sales ring, but since that point they have averaged $378,195.
"Up until his retirement, his yearlings had averaged $155,884 through the sales ring, but since that point they have averaged $378,195."
Understandably given his ongoing success, his yearling sale averages have risen as his career has progressed and in 2019, reached $305,223, but the comparison between what he achieved at Magic Millions' Gold Coast Yearling Sale in 2020 compared to 2021 gives an insight into current demand for his progeny.
At the 2020 Magic Millions January Sale, he had 32 yearlings sell for an average of $344,531 and a top price of $650,000. In 2021, he had 17 sell, and he topped the averages for all sires (more than three sold), on $597,647, which included four $1 million-plus lots.
There is no doubt the successes of Farnan and Classique Legend also impacted this amazing surge. It was Tony Fung Investments and Phoenix Thoroughbreds who raced Farnan together, who also took a particular shine to what is his penultimate crop, buying seven of them on the Gold Coast including three seven-figure lots.
Among their purchases was a colt out of One More Honey (Onemorenomore) from Emirates Park, who fetched the highest-ever yearling price for one of his progeny at $1.8 million.
Lot 612 - Not A Single Doubt x One More Honey (colt)
The premium placed on his colts was also an indication of the drive to source his heir in terms of sire sons.
There were just three sons of Not A Single Doubt at stud in Australia in 2020, Extreme Choice, Dubious and Squamosa, a common occurrence when a stallion starts off a low fee as the colts tend to be gelded until the sire is proven.
That number of course will rise with mare quality and progeny value, and as is the case with Not A Single Doubt there were two big stallion deals done on his sons in the second half of 2020, with Kia Ora buying into Farnan and Widden Stud securing his speedy Group 3-winning son Anders.
The value of Not A Single Doubt's fillies is also on the increase, with Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott/Kestrel Thoroughbreds sourcing one of his out of Rhodamine (Success Express {USA}) for $750,000 on the Gold Coast, the highest yearling price for one of his daughters.
There will also no doubt be a residual knock-on impact to those daughters already on the racetrack. Arrowfield Stud-owned Mallory became the first stakes winner from his current 2-year-old crop on Saturday, while Samizdat, a dual stakes winner from a very strong Western Australian family, would also hold significant value should she ever be presented in a sales ring as a broodmare prospect.
