Assessing 'stallion-making races'

To conduct the analysis, Peter Jenkins selected 18 of these elite prizes – 17 Group 1 events, plus the Magic Millions 2YO Classic – and examined the stud careers of every colt/entire winner since the 1986/87 season.

His next task was to grade the stud success of these 155 stallions, using the common benchmark for success – their number of stakes winners, compared to their total number of runners.

For stallions who achieved a ratio of 7 per cent stakes winners to runners or better, Jenkins assigned an ‘A’ grade, or ‘superior’. A total of 15 elite sires reached this threshold, including such luminaries as Redoute’s Choice, Snitzel, Fastnet Rock, Savabeel and Exceed And Excel.

Stallions with 4 per cent to 7 per cent stakes winners to runners were assigned a ‘B’ grade, with a ‘C’ grade for sires whose ratio fell between 2.5 per cent and 3.95 per cent. Sires who could not manage a ratio better than 2.44 per cent (one point below the breed average) were rated ‘D’.

To achieve an overall rating for each race, Jenkins tallied the total number of ‘superior’ (A-grade) and ‘good’ (B-grade) sires to have won each race, and divided that figure by the number of overall colt winners of those races. The overall score is then expressed as a percentage.

In fairness to current stallions, they must have at least three crops racing in order to provide a fair snapshot of their success at stud.

Jenkins also acknowledged the issue of unequal opportunity.

“Opportunity and success are more closely linked than many in the game would give credit for,” he said. “There is no doubt if a VRC or AJC Derby winner in the 1980s retired to stud, it was generally to a smaller farm who priced the horse modestly to ensure a book, but despite this many of these stallions were poorly patronised in terms of numbers and quality of mares. You could argue that if they were truly great sires, they would overcome this handicap, and a handful did.

“It goes without saying that today if a stud farm retires a Golden Slipper or Caulfield Guineas winner, the stallion’s fee is substantial and the demand for bookings is usually to the point of oversubscription. This ensures these sire prospects are afforded the maximum opportunity in terms of numbers and mare quality.

“However, if they are ultimately poor stallions, this will not save them, and category C and D are littered with stallions who have produced over 400 runners for only an average return or worse – most of these being afforded excellent opportunities.”

*Both the Coolmore Stud S. and Golden Rose are rated 50 since their elevation to Group 1 status.

The table-toppers

When the 18 races are ranked in order of their percentage of A-grade and B-grade sire winners, there is a very clear and perhaps predictable winner.

GOLDEN SLIPPER (72.7 per cent)

The world’s richest race for 2-year-olds automatically springs to mind in any discussion of stallion-making races, and its results back that up. The Golden Slipper’s score of 72.7 per cent ‘superior’ or ‘good’ stallions makes it a clear-cut winner of this study.

Star Watch and Pierro are the two A-graded winners of the race in the last 34 years, while Marauding, Canny Lad, Flying Spur, Catbird, Stratum and Sebring all achieve a solid grade of B.

“The holy grail of juvenile racing has proved to be a very reliable guideline to future stallion success,” Jenkins said. “From 11 candidates over the last 30-odd years, only three have proven average or worse. Notably, every one of the 11 has managed to sire a Group 1 winner.”

NEWMARKET H. (60 per cent)

The Flemington sprint feature has a relatively small sample size in this study, but it has scored strongly through star sire Exceed And Excel and winners General Nediym and Shamexpress (NZ).

“Not many colts or entires have triumphed down the ‘straight six’ at Flemington, but three out of the short list of five have made into good sires,” Jenkins said.

COX PLATE (50 per cent)

Australia’s weight-for-age championship has been a stepping stone to stud success for champion New Zealand sire Savabeel, successful stallions Rubiton, So You Think (NZ) and Shamus Award, and the very promising Ocean Park (NZ).

MAGIC MILLIONS 2YO CLASSIC (50 per cent)

Top quality stallions Snippets, Brave Warrior, General Nediym and Testa Rossa feature on the Magic Millions roll of honour. Their success cuts a stark contrast with the other colt winners – Molokai Prince, St Jude, Bradbury’s Luck and Unencumbered.

“Surprisingly, only eight colts have captured the Gold Coast feature and made it to stud in the past 30-odd years, but four of these have rated ‘good’ or better and produced 178 stakes winners between them,” Jenkins said.

ATC SIRES’ PRODUCE S. (41.7 per cent)

The second of Sydney’s juvenile features to rank among the top five, the Sires’ Produce has produced five ‘superior’ or ‘good’ sires during the period of this study. It has enjoyed a particularly good run of recent results.

“Three of the most recent four colts who have at least three crops racing – Pierro, Manhattan Rain and Sebring – have all proved to be ‘superior’ or ‘good’ sires,” Jenkins said.

COOLMORE STUD S. & GOLDEN ROSE S. (33.3 per cent to 50 per cent)

The Coolmore Stud S. and the Golden Rose, which rank in equal seventh place on our table with a score of 33.3 per cent, have both achieved a significantly higher rating of 50 per cent since they were upgraded to Group 1 status.

“The Coolmore Stud S. is often described as a ‘stallion-making' race, and the four most recent colts to retire to stud and establish a record have included Zoustar and his own sire, Northern Meteor,” Jenkins said.

“Prior to its elevation to Group 1 status, it also yielded the likes of Kaapstad, Encosta De Lago and Zeditave.

“In the Golden Rose’s previous iteration as the Peter Pan, it threw up a couple of decent stallions – Flying Spur and the ill-fated Brave Warrior. Since the elevation to Group 1 status and Golden Rose appellation, Zoustar and Epaulette have helped establish a 50 per cent success record for winners of this race.

“The race’s progress as a source of sire potential will be interesting to follow with the five next victors – Hallowed Crown, Exosphere, Astern, Trapeze Artist and The Autumn Sun – all being afforded excellent opportunities at stud," he said.

The underperformers

There are some surprising races at the opposite end of this table – both the Victoria Derby and the ATC Australian Derby feature among the bottom four, as does the ATC Champagne S., while the Blue Diamond fares only marginally better in 12th spot.

“For the past 30-odd years, the Victorian spring staying classic has failed to unearth a ‘superior’ sire,” Jenkins pointed out. “Three rather modest ‘good’ stallions (King’s High, Blackfriars and Helenus) save the honour roll.

“The ATC Derby has unearthed the ill-fated Dr Grace and more recently Dundeel as ‘superior’ or ‘good’ sires, but overall it has an even poorer record than the VRC Derby for producing quality stallions.

“Surprisingly, just one ‘superior’ sire (Redoute’s Choice) and two rated as ‘good’ in the past 30-odds years sees the Blue Diamond come out with a low 23.1 per cent rating.”

Summary

So, which races are the true stallion-makers?

“I think the results bear out that the Coolmore Stud S., with a rating of 50 per cent since becoming a Group 1 event, the Cox Plate (also 50 per cent) and the Newmarket, with a very good score of 60 per cent despite a low strike-rate of colt/entire winners, were all highly rated races for producing good stallions,” Jenkins said.

“However, not only did Rosehill’s Golden Slipper top the Magic Millions and obliterate the Blue Diamond, but its overall rating of 72.7 per cent winners who go on to be ‘superior’ or ‘good’ stallions is unmatched. Only the ‘average’ sires Sepoy and Danzero and the hugely disappointing Tierce did not make it into the 'superior/good' category out of 11 candidates. The subsequent careers of Vancouver and Capitalist will be watched with much interest.”

For a full copy of the statistical analysis, please contact Peter Jenkins: peter.jenkins@arrowfield.com.au.