The economic uncertainty caused by the biggest global public health crisis in a century is already impacting the thoroughbred industry and has prompted most of the country's leading studs to modify their service fees.
We have taken a shot at quantifying how that looks, both for new stallions and for those who are more established, to look at the patterns which will likely shape the future prosperity, or otherwise, of the industry.
For the purpose of this exercise, we have used the initially announced fee from each stud in respective years, and all prices include GST.
The overall picture
The top end of the market, where stallion fees are in the six-figure territory, was always going to be vulnerable to any economic downturn. The prices of stallions at this level often accelerate greatly, and in turn, when they drop, they tend to drop by significant amounts.
Of the five horses priced in the $100,000-plus range in 2019, four had their fees reduced in 2020, with only Coolmore's Fastnet Rock holding at the same level. The average drop for those five stallions was 18.4 per cent with Written Tycoon, who has moved from Woodside Park to Arrowfield Stud having the most significant drop by 30 per cent on his 2019 fee.
Fastnet Rock has had his fee held steady in 2020 | Standing at Coolmore
In comparison, in 2019, none of the top-five priced stallions in Australia from the previous year had a price cut, with two, the now-pensioned Not A Single Doubt and Yarraman Park's I Am invincible having their fees deservedly increased.
The price adjustment trend pretty much flows down the entire chain. Of the 133 established stallions (ie not new stallions) whose prices have been announced to date, just seven (5.26 per cent) have seen an increase in price. Established stars Pierro (up 56 per cent) and Exceed And Excel (up 50 per cent) defied that trend thanks to exceptional results on the track from their progeny.
| Pierro | Lonhro | Coolmore Australia | $137,500 | $88,000 | $49,500 |
| Exceed And Excel | Danehill (USA) | Darley, Kelvinside | $132,000 | $88,000 | $44,000 |
| Deep Field | Northern Meteor | Newgate Farm | $55,000 | $44,000 | $11,000 |
| Puissance De Lune (Ire) | Shamardal (USA) | Swettenham Stud | $19,800 | $8800 | $11,000 |
| Shamus Award | Snitzel | Rosemont Stud | $19,800 | $11,000 | $8800 |
| Playing God | Blackfriars | Mungrup Stud | $16,500 | $11,000 | $5500 |
| I'm All The Talk | Stratum | Mungrup Stud | $7700 | $5500 | $2200 |
Table: Announced stallions whose fees have risen in 2020
Similarly, in the emerging sires category, Newgate Farm's Deep Field (up 25 per cent), Rosemont's Shamus Award (up 80 per cent), Mungrup Stud's Playing God (up 50 per cent) and I'm All the Talk (up 40 per cent) and Swettenham Stud's Puissance De Lune (Ire) (up 125 per cent) have had boosts in price off good seasons from their progeny on the track and in the sales ring. If they continue the current trajectory, their profile will move toward a successful proven sire - an area of the market where there is always constant demand.
Comparing that mark of 5.26 per cent of stallions having a price rise to 12 months ago, a sign of the times is apparent. In 2019, 12.65 per cent of Australian stallions had their service fee increase year-on-year.
"In 2019, 12.65 per cent of Australian stallions had their service fee increase year-on-year. " - Bren O'Brien
When year-on-year price reductions are compared, the pattern is again evident. In 2019, 25.3 per cent of stallions in Australia reduced in price. This year that number, as it stands, is 62 per cent. Just 30.8 per cent of existing stallions in 2020 will stand at the same price as they did in 2019. Last year, that number was 62 per cent when compared to 2018.
| 2020 | 5.26% | 30.80% | 63.94% |
| 2019 | 12.65% | 62.05% | 25.30% |
Table: Changes in the price of established stallions - Percentage
Comparing the 2020 fees of the lowest price bracket is difficult as many are yet to be confirmed. However, comparing the Top 50 and Top 100 by order of most expensive on price does give us a better ability to compare from year to year.
The average of the Top 50 on the 2019 fees list was $52,580, with a median of $33,000, while in 2020 that average has dropped to $51,975, while the median has risen to $38,500.
Incorporating the Top 100, the 2019 figures see an average of $34,184 and a median of $22,000. The median has stayed the same in 2020, while the average has dipped slightly to $33,578.
Snitzel currently leads the General Sires' tables | Standing at Arrowfield Stud
An analysis of the geographic location of stallions does not indicate a significant disparity in which region is more affected. We looked at the average price drop from 2019 for specific stallions in the three states which have already announced fees of more than 10 stallions.
The average fee for a Victorian stallion has dropped 15.41 per cent, while those in New South Wales, the lion's share of which are located in the Hunter Valley, have dropped 13.6 per cent, and Queensland-based stallion fees announced to date have declined 14.32 per cent.
| NSW | -13.64% |
| QLD | -14.32% |
| VIC | -15.41% |
Table: Service fee change in established stallions 2019 to 2020
Freshmen bolster the market
The one area where confidence does not appear to have been dented is the setting of fees for new stallions.
Analysis of this area of the market is always a little fraught because it can largely swing on the quality of stallions from a certain crop. A strong class one year does not equate to a strong crop the next year, but the overall patterns are interesting to explore.
| Trapeze Artist * | $88,000 |
| The Autumn Sun | $77,000 |
| Kementari | $33,000 |
| Saxon Warrior (Jpn) | $24,750 |
| Written By | $24,750 |
| Brave Smash (Jpn) | $22,000 |
| Harry Angel (Ire) | $22,000 |
Table: New stallions above $20,000 for 2019
From the current data set, there were 26 new stallions with announced fees in Australia in 2019 at an average price of $20,138 and a median price of $13,750.
They included two local stallions with major profiles in Trapeze Artist (*initially listed at $88,000 before standing at $77,000), and The Autumn Sun, who stood for $77,000. Note that this data doesn't include Justify (USA), whose service fee was listed as 'Private'.
Including the two listed above, there were seven first-season stallions who stood for above $20,000 in Australia in 2019.
Aquis Farm's Pierata heads the first-season sires fees along with Darley's Blue Point (Ire) and Too Darn Hot (GB)
In an interesting development, as it stands there will be 12 first-season stallions in Australia with a service fee of above $20,000.
The average price of the 22 debut stallions announced so far has been $24,100, a 20 per cent rise on last year, while the median is at $22,000.
That is despite the fact that the top price for a first-season sire announced so far is $44,000, well below the highest priced debutants in 2019. The top-priced stallions this year are Aquis' Pierata, and Darley's shuttling pair Blue Point (Ire) and Too Darn Hot (GB).
| Blue Point (Ire) | $44,000 |
| Pierata | $44,000 |
| Too Darn Hot (GB) | $44,000 |
| Exceedance | $38,500 |
| Microphone | $38,500 |
| Yes Yes Yes | $38,500 |
| Castelvecchio | $33,000 |
| Alabama Express | $27,500 |
| Brutal | $27,500 |
| Magna Grecia (Ire) | $22,000 |
| Omaha Beach (USA) | $22,000 |
| World Of Trouble | $22,000 |
Table: New stallions above $20,000 for 2020
It may be that as a collective crop, this year's freshmen class is stronger than 2019, and that price discrepancy is justified to buck the broader trend.
The best indicator over whether the studs have got their pricing right for 2020 will of course be in the quality and quantity of the mares they attract to their stallions, something they are all no doubt working very hard on right now.
